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\section{Results}\label{sec:results}
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\section{Full-year Simulation Results}\label{sec:results}
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This section focuses on the presentation and interpretation of the year-long
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simulation of the control schemes present previously. All the control schemes
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analysed in this Section have been done with a sampling time of 15 minutes and a
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control horizon of 8 steps.
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simulation of the control schemes presented previously. All the control schemes
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analysed in this Section have used a sampling time of 15 minutes and a control
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horizon of 8 steps.
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Section~\ref{sec:GP_results} analyses the results of a conventional
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\acrlong{gp} Model trained on the first five days of gathered data. The models
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\acrlong{gp} Model trained on the first five days of gathered data. The model
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is then used for the rest of the year, with the goal of tracking the defined
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reference temperature.
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Section~\ref{sec:SVGP_results} goes into details on the analysis of the Learning
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Section~\ref{sec:SVGP_results} goes into details on the analysis of the learning
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scheme using a \acrshort{svgp} Model. In this scenario, the model is first
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trained on the first five days of data, and updates every day at midnight with
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the new information gathered from closed-loop operation.
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@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ the new information gathered from closed-loop operation.
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\subsection{Conventional Gaussian Processes}\label{sec:GP_results}
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The first simulation, to be used as a baseline comparison with the
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\acrshort{svgp} Models developed further consists of using a `static'
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\acrshort{svgp} Models developed further, consists of using a `static'
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\acrshort{gp} model trained on five days worth of experimental data. This model
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is then employed for the rest of the year.
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@ -94,7 +94,7 @@ $\degree$C respectively.
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\end{figure}
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This large difference of performance could be explained by the change in outside
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weather (Solar Irradiance and Outside Temperature --- the exogenous inputs) from
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weather (solar irradiance and outside temperature --- the exogenous inputs) from
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the one present during the training phase. It can be seen in
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Figure~\ref{fig:Dataset_outside_temperature} that already at 500 points in the
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simulation both the GHI and the Outside Temperature are outside of the training
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@ -143,11 +143,11 @@ at midnight using the newly accumulated data from closed-loop operation.
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The results of this setup are presented in
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Figure~\ref{fig:SVGP_fullyear_simulation}. It can already be seen that this
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setup performs much better than the initial one. The only large deviations from
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the reference temperature are due to cold --- when the \acrshort{hvac}'s limited
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heat capacity is unable to maintain the proper temperature. Additionnaly, the
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\acrshort{svgp} controller takes around 250-300ms of computation time for each
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simulation time, decreasing the computational cost of the original \acrshort{gp}
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by a factor of six.
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the reference temperature are due to cold weather, when the \acrshort{hvac}'s
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limited heat capacity is unable to maintain the proper temperature.
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Additionnaly, the \acrshort{svgp} controller takes around 250 - 300ms of
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computation time for each simulation time, decreasing the computational cost of
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the original \acrshort{gp} by a factor of six.
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@ -161,7 +161,7 @@ by a factor of six.
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\clearpage
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Comparing the Absolute Error of the Measured vs Reference temperature for the
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Comparing the absolute error of the measured vs reference temperature for the
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duration of the experiment (cf. Figure~\ref{fig:SVGP_fullyear_abserr}) with the
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one of the original experiment, the average absolute error is reduced from 1.33
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$\degree$C to only 0.05 $\degree$C, with the majority of the values being lower
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@ -210,7 +210,7 @@ behaviour of the plant over all the experimental steps in the first two cases.
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It still has a noticeable error when predicting the behaviour of the plant on
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new data (i.e. simulations starting at steps 10750 and 11000), but it is much
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less than before. This gives a hint at the fact that the \acrshort{svgp} model's
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performance ameliorates throughout the year, but it does require much more data
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performance improves throughout the year, but it does require much more data
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than the classical \acrshort{gp} model to capture the building dynamics.
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\begin{figure}[ht]
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simulation data (cf. Figures~\ref{fig:SVGP_96pts_fullyear_simulation}
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and~\ref{fig:SVGP_96pts_abserr}) it is very notable that the model performs
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almost identically to the one identified in the previous sections. This
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nightlights one of the practical benefits of the \acrshort{svgp} implementations
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compared to the classical \acrlong{gp} -- it is possible to start with a more
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rough controller trained on less data and refine it over time, reducing the need
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for cumbersome and potentially costly initial experiments for gathering data.
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highlights one of the practical benefits of the \acrshort{svgp} implementations
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compared to the classical \acrlong{gp} -- it is possible to start with a rougher
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controller trained on less data and refine it over time, reducing the need for
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cumbersome and potentially costly initial experiments for gathering data.
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\begin{figure}[ht]
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\centering
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\end{figure}
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As it can be seen in Figure~\ref{fig:SVGP_480window_fullyear_simulation}, this
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model is unable to properly track the reference temperature. In fact, five days
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model is unable to exhaustively track the reference temperature. In fact, five days
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after the identification, the model forgets all the initial data and becomes
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unstable. This instability then generates enough excitation of the plant for the
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model, to again learn its behaviour. This cycle repeats every five days, when the
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continue to improve over the course of the year, as the building passes through
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different regions of the state space and more data is collected.
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These results do not, however, discredit the use of \acrlong{gp} for employment
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However, these results do not discredit the use of \acrlong{gp} for employment
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in a multi-seasonal situation. As shown before, given the same amount of data
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and ignoring the computational cost, they perform better than the alternative
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\acrshort{svgp} models. The bad initial performance could be mitigated by
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